Nepal’s hydropower sector is in a very strange place right now. On paper, hydro should be one of Nepal’s strongest long-term sectors. We have rivers, electricity demand is rising, India/Bangladesh export story is there, government keeps talking about energy, and banks keep financing projects. So from far away, everything looks good. But when you look at listed hydropower companies, the story is not that simple. Many have weak profits, high debt, delayed projects, low or negative EPS, and still the market gets excited whenever there is IPO, bonus, or right share news. The main issue is this: the market is treating hydropower less like an electricity business and more like a funding game. * IPO at Rs 100 = lottery * right share at Rs 100 = cheap * bonus share = free paisa * big buy order in tms = kheladi aayo * weak quarterly report = ignore * company asking money to repay loan = bullish news The right share trap is especially interesting. If you already hold the stock and the company announces right share, you cannot simply ignore it. If you do not apply, your existing holding gets price-adjusted after book closure. Portfolio value can drop overnight. If you apply, you are putting more cash into the same company. So holders are forced into two choices: sell before adjustment, or bring more cash. Why has the bubble not popped yet? 1. IPO lottery mindset People still believe Meroshare ipo is low-risk lottery. "Paryo bhane maalamal, parena bhane paisa firta." 2. Right share greed and right share trap: A rs 500 stock giving rs 100 right share looks cheap. But people forget the company still has to generate return on that new capital. 3. No short selling There is no strong natural seller who can attack overpricing. Almost everyone wants price to go up. 4. Fake buy order culture A large buy order in TMS can change sentiment. Even if people know it may be fake, they still think “kheladi le mathi lanchha hola.” 5. Scattered public holding Many people hold 10, 20, 50 kitta. Small holders are easy to influence through market depth, rumors, and FOMO. 6. Regulators move slowly nepse and SEBON issue warnings, but actual enforcement still feels weak. A bubble does not pop just because valuation is high. It pops when the story stops bringing new money. Possible triggers: * too many IPOs and right shares dividing new money * right share news stops pushing price higher * weak quarterly reports become impossible to ignore * lock-in supply starts hitting the market * NEPSE becomes strict on fake buy orders and collateral * liquidity tightens * one big manipulation scandal comes out Chart-wise, hydropower index is near the old mania zone. My rough view is: above 4100, final madness can still happen. Below 3480 weekly close, game changes. Below 2900, bubble breakdown looks confirmed. If you want to read my Fundamental as well as technical chart analysis of What can pop this bubble, when the bubble can pop, you can read it for FREE from this link: [https://laganilab.com/nepal-hydropower-bubble/](https://laganilab.com/nepal-hydropower-bubble/](https://laganilab.com/nepal-hydropower-bubble/))